Shipping delays adding to uncertainty around prices
NS Labour Department Last month’s consumer-price index, which measures how much consumers pay for goods and services, rose 5.4% from a year earlier, which was unsurprisingly, it said. ie Same rate in June and July as the economy reopened, and a little more than in August. The so-called core price index, which excludes the often-volatile categories of food and energy, climbed 4% in September from a year earlier, the same rate in August.
On monthly basis, CPI Seasonally adjusted up 0.4% in September From August, even faster than in August.
US inflation expectations hit highest level since 2013
The pull of high inflation – which many economists now expect to stop – is beginning to have a massive impact on overall cost of living, wages and social benefit programs. The Social Security Administration said on Wednesday that high inflation would trigger 5.9% increase for Social Security benefits What senior citizens and other Americans get is the biggest increase in nearly 40 years. It would also increase Social Security taxes for higher-paid workers. Last week, the Labor Department said employers raised wages in September by 4.6% from a year earlier, a pickup from previous months.
Abnormally high demand is a key factor driving high inflation. Spending jumped at an 11.9% pace in the second quarter as more people received COVID-19 vaccinations, businesses reopened and trillions of dollars in federal aid flowed through the economy. consumer spending continues to rise in August.
labor shortage is also raising wages, putting pressure on companies to raise prices. Economists say the sharp jump in restaurant prices over the past few months is a sign of this shift from wage to higher prices.
rising energy pricesA global recovery in demand, driven by constrained supply and geopolitical forces – could also keep prices higher. According to the US Energy Information Administration, US consumers are now paying an average of $3.29 a gallon for gasoline, the highest level in seven years. Faster energy bills for businesses can add to the pressure to raise prices.
“Housing costs, low inventory and rising energy prices will keep inflation longer,” said James Knightley, ING’s chief international economist, who now expects consumer inflation to remain above 5% during the first quarter of 2022. He Said inflation could signal that.” The Federal Reserve to act “earlier and faster” to change monetary policy to reduce inflation.
The Labor Department said prices for groceries, gasoline and heating fuel rose in September along with the cost of new vehicles, rent and furniture. Prices fell for used autos, airline fares and apparel.
Companies are grappling with scarce materials due to a combination of poor supply chains, disrupted production and increased demand due to the pandemic. The combination of truck-driver shortages and continued consumer demand for goods has led to the closure of ports, delaying the delivery of goods and increasing shipping prices.
Social Security payments will be highest in 39 years as inflation rises
Adam Levine, owner of a building materials delivery business based in Columbus, Ohio, began noticing a rise in prices in the spring. “And then it was just one after another,” he said. His company, Hamilton Parker, sells masonry, tile, fireplaces and other construction products to consumers and other businesses, and soon raised its prices to keep up.
Shipping delays are adding to the uncertainty around prices. Delivery time is extended for all products of the company. Garage doors are coming in 15 weeks when they used to take just two, Mr Levine said. With such delays in shipments, suppliers have started raising prices on already negotiated orders.
“The risk for us as a result of price changes is that projects may be canceled, affecting future sales. Customer relationships may be challenged based on unexpected price changes, and communicate these price updates to my team There is significant stress on doing it,” he said.
Many companies are planning in advance To pass on higher labor and material costs to consumers. In September, some 46% of small businesses said they planned to raise prices over the next three months, according to the National Federation of Independent Business, a trade association, the highest since monthly records began in 1986.
“It looks like some of these supply-chain and inventory challenges are going to be with us for a while—at least for the rest of this year,” said Omair Sharif, founder of Inflation Insights LLC.
is an example lack of semiconductors This has put curbs on auto production, which has pushed up the prices of new and used vehicles. According to Kelley Blue Book, as new car sales slowed for the fifth month in a row, the average price of a new vehicle in September rose by nearly $4,900 compared to a year earlier. However, despite private sector data signaling A rebound in used car priceshandjob The Department of Labor Department reported a slight decline last month.
Robert Rosner, senior US economist at Morgan Stanley, said the fall in the prices of used cars and airline fares hid the underlying inflationary trend.
“The real story in the inflation data was the upside in more cyclical and frequent components such as rents,” he said. “This tells us that there is an important source of support that is likely to keep inflation data stable in the coming months and more.” Rent is a major category as it makes up about one-third of the CPI index and influences the future trajectory of inflation. Tenant rent rose 0.5% in August to September, the fastest monthly increase since 2001. The so-called owners’ par rent, which estimates how much homeowners will pay each month to rent out their home, rose by 0.4%, the highest since 2006.
Fed officials are closely watching a number of inflation measures to determine whether the recent surge in prices will prove to be temporary or permanent. One such factor is consumer expectations of future inflation, which may prove to be self-sustaining as households are more likely to demand higher wages and accept higher prices when they expect higher price increases in the future. Consumers’ average inflation expectation for three years rose to 4.2% in September, up from 4% a month earlier, according to a New York Fed survey. The September readings were the highest since the survey began in 2013. According to the Atlanta Fed, business expectations for inflation held steady at 3.1% in early October, a year from now since the survey began in 2011.
Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said on Tuesday that The underlying rate of inflation in the US economy The Fed’s 2% is close to its long-run objective and thus, the recent surge will prove to be “largely temporary” once supply constraints become clear. However, he said the Fed would raise rates if it saw evidence that households and businesses were expecting higher inflation.
“Monetary policy will react to that,” Clarida said. “But that’s not the case at the moment.”