ANALYSIS: How the ‘905’ earns its outsize influence on national politics

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As is often the case in Canadian federal elections, the outcome may depend on the choices of the 3.6 million people who live in “905”.

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Voters in the 30-odd seats in the Durham, York, Peel and Halton areas – the horseshoe-shaped area that borders Toronto and nicknamed “905” for the area code – have chosen mostly liberals. . The Liberals have formed the government in the last two elections and, of course, Ottawa. But when the same voters begin to elect Conservatives, Conservatives can usually count on making a claim on a government bench.

If it’s possible to speak of a Belvedere area, it certainly has to be “905”.

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Polling firm Ipsos was tracking vote intentions of “905” voters in the month of August and, Poll provided exclusively to Granthshala News, found that voters in that area were certainly willing to consider looking at Erin O’Toole’s Conservatives, but Justin Trudeau’s Liberals took advantage—at least as it stood when the calendar flipped in September.

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In a poll of 905 of 2,001 residents in three different polling periods in August, Ipsos found that 37 percent were willing to vote for Liberals and 34 percent would vote for Conservatives. Jagmeet Singh’s NDP got 23 per cent, Annie Paul’s Green Party two per cent and Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada got only one per cent support among voters in 905.

The Ipsos survey of “905” residents was conducted August 13–16, August 20–23, and August 27–30. Ipsos surveyed 1,501 people online and 500 others were interviewed by real people calling landline and cellphone numbers. Pollster uses a statistical technique called “credibility intervals” to measure the accuracy of its results and claims an accuracy rate for this sample size and technique, 19 times out of 20, by 2.9 percentage points.

An important takeaway from the Ipsos deep dive in 905 is that Trudeau is slightly more popular in the region than in national polls, while O’Toole was less popular. This would be a net positive for the Liberals.

And yet, another important finding from the 905 poll: Just 41 percent of those polled said the Trudeau government deserved re-election, while 59 percent said it was time for another party to come to power. This would be a net negative for liberals.

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In any event, the survey also underscores the region’s voters’ willingness to transfer their votes and, with the region’s sheer size, gives 905 its status as kingmaker.

Whereas voters in 25 ridings in Toronto are (with occasional exceptions) as reliably Liberal as voters in 30 ridings in Alberta are (with the odd exception) reliably Conservative, voters in 905 went Conservative during Stephen Harper’s years But back to the liberals when Justin Trudeau appeared in 2015.

Pollsters, pundits, and parties will debate the exact definition of the non-Toronto portion of the Greater Toronto Area that we call 905. There is now widespread agreement that Milton’s ride should definitely take its place among GTA riding – and be its western terminus – but there was a time, perhaps as recently as 20 years ago, when the small-town, rural character of Milton replaced it. Was separated from rides in Mississauga, Brampton, Pickering etc.

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Meanwhile, the eastern terminus of the Greater Toronto Area is a ride to Durham. Indeed, that’s why Erin O’Toole – who represents Durham’s riding – during stops in Whitby and Mississauga last week encouraged her supporters to make her the first prime minister in our history to represent a GTA ride. Were were Its northern boundary is generally considered to be Brampton, Vaughan and Newmarket, but some, like me, may quibble and suggest that Dufferin-Caledon, north of Brampton, should be considered a GTA/905 ride, who live in most of them. Its heavily populated southern part would work and/or shop in Brampton or Mississauga.

In any event, while those campaigns close at 905 last week, O’Toole also stressed his affinity with voters there. If Justin Trudeau can declare, as he did during the French-language leaders’ debate, that he was a “proud Quebecer”, then O’Toole would claim his roots as a Bowmanville boy who rides a Go Train. became a computer.

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“I’m a product of the 905. Because, like my parents, I chose to raise my family in the Toronto suburbs,” O’Toole said Saturday at an expedition stop at Whitby Go station.

And make no mistake: 905—The election in battle is a binary—Red or Blue, Trudeau or O’Toole, Liberal or Conservative. The NDP, the Greens or any other party played only a minor role in electoral politics in the region. Actually, in the last 60 years there was only one MP who was No A Conservative or Liberal won the area and was named Ed Broadbent, a New Democrat from Oshawa from the 1968 to 1993 election.

This trend will almost certainly continue into 2021. The Liberals currently hold all seats except five in 905 and if O’Toole has any hope of becoming the first prime minister of the GTA, his party should certainly take advantage here.

Here are some rides in the 905 race to watch Monday night:

  • king-won: This is one of several re-matches of 2019 taking place across the country, where incumbent Liberals and Seniors Minister Deb Schulte is up against Anna Roberts, a longtime resident of the financial services industry. Huh. In 2019, Schulte won by just 1,141 votes, or 1.8 percent. Given the current state of elections in Ontario, it could be even closer this time around.
  • Richmond Hill: Liberal leader Majid Johri was born in Tehran and has come under fire from some of the Iranian diaspora in Canada and from his political opponents for not opposing the regime in Iran as hard as they would like. In 2019, it was one of the closest races in the country, with Johri defeating Conservative candidate and Harper-era MP Costas Menegakis by 212 votes, or 0.4 percent. Many conservatives said it was a great example of how the People’s Party of Canada hurt the Conservatives. In 2019, the PPC got only 507 votes, or 1.0 percent of all votes, but if even half went to Menegakis, he might have won. This will be another rematch of Johair vs Menegakis in 2021. And, for good measure, the 2019 PPC candidate, Igor Tvorogov, and the 2019 NDP candidate, Adam Davita, are both running again.
  • Newmarket-Aurora: On the northern border of the 905s, this riding is organized by the current Tony Van Byen, the former mayor of Newmarket….

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