Astros vs. Phillies prediction: The bats will go cold in Game 4

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The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Houston Astros 7–0 in Game 3 to take a 2–1 lead in the World Series. The win flipped the odds for a best-7 set, with Philadelphia now sitting as the -155 favorite to lift the trophy.

Any win in race four is clearly monumental, but the Phillies’ victory on Tuesday night gives Aaron Nola a chance to give the team a 3-1 series lead.


Nola and Phils are modest -104 underdogs against the Astros in Game 4.

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Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola
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Astros vs Phillies Odds (BetMGM)

Spread: HOU -1.5 (+150) vs PHI +1.5 (-185)

money line: HOU (-110) vs PHI (-110)

gross: greater than 7.5 (+100) | less than 7.5 (-120)

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Astros vs Phillies Prediction

Although NOLA struggled in Game 1, there’s really no reason to be concerned. It was his first poor outing since August, and he has generally been dominant down the stretch and into the latter season.

More than anything, it looked like Nola was a little off from that moment as her usually best-in-class command left her against the Astros.

Nola finished the season in second place in MLB in walk rate, but allowed two free passes with six hits in 4.1 innings of work in the series opener.

A better outing will be needed for Nola, as she will be offered little margin for error against Cristian Xavier.

Javier is a unique starting pitcher, but he is incredibly effective. A mostly two-pitch thrower, the 25-year-old relies on his four-seam fastball and slider to carry him through most of his outings. Javier has a change and a curveball in his pocket, but he throws them about 10 percent of the time.

Despite having only two plus pitches, Javier posted elite numbers for the Astros in 2022. Per statcast, Dominican Republic natives are in the 96th percentile in xERA, 98th percentile in expected batting average, 95th percentile in expected slugging percentage, and 82nd percentile. In hard-hit rates.

Christian Xavier
Christian Xavier
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With two days off before Tuesday’s blast, both bullpen should be in good shape, but the Astros will have little advantage as they only used Raine Stenk for two-thirds of the innings and then Jose for the final three frames in the mop. Went to Urquidi. -Up Duty in Game 3. All hands are on deck in Houston.

The Phillies finished behind Ranger Suarez using four relievers (Conor Brogdon, Kyle Gibson, Nick Nelson and Andrew Bellatti), but Rob Thomson would have his high-leverage weapons to go. And out of that bunch, only Nelson was actually taxed.

We have yet to see a pitchers duel in this series, and so far in every game a team has leapfrogged for a five-run lead. That pattern should be broken on Wednesday, when Javier and Nola collide. It’s making for a pitcher’s duel and with both bullpen in decent shape behind two elite starters, there’s a lot of value on the bottom.

Astros vs Phillies Pickup

Under 7.5 (-120) BetMGM

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