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A World Bank report has found that unless urgent action is taken to reduce global emissions and bridge the development gap, climate change could cause more than 200 million people to leave their homes and migrate over the next three decades. to create hot spots.

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second part of groundswell report good Published on Monday examined how the effects of slow-onset climate change such as water scarcity, reduced crop productivity and rising sea levels could separate millions of people described as “climate migrants” by 2050. -Can be carried under three different scenarios with varying degrees. development.

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Under the most pessimistic scenario, with high levels of emissions and uneven growth, the report estimates that 216 million people are moving to their own countries in the six regions analyzed. Those regions are Latin America; North Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Eastern Europe and Central Asia; South Asia; and East Asia and the Pacific.

In the most climate-friendly scenario, with low levels of emissions and inclusive, sustainable development, the world could still see 44 million people forced to leave their homes.

FILE – Icebergs from the Cermek Kujallek Glacier (background) float in the Ilulissat Icefjord in Ilulissat, Greenland, on September 05, 2021, amid global warming.

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“The findings confirm the power of climate to drive migration within countries,” said Vivian Wei Chen Clement, a senior climate change expert at the World Bank and one of the report’s authors.

The report did not look at the short-term effects of Climate change, such as the effects of extreme weather events, and did not look at climate migration across borders.

In a worst-case scenario, sub-Saharan Africa – the region most vulnerable to desertification, fragile coastlines and the population’s reliance on agriculture – will see the most migrants, with 86 million people moving within national borders.

However, North Africa is predicted to have the largest proportion of climate migrants, with 19 million people moving in, equivalent to about 9% of its population, mainly due to northeastern Tunisia, northwestern Algeria, western and southern There is a shortage of water in Morocco. Central Atlas Foothills, the report said.

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In South Asia, Bangladesh is particularly affected by floods and crop failure, accounting for nearly half of the estimated climate migrants, with 19.9 million people, including an increasing number of women, moving under a pessimistic scenario by 2050. .

“This is our human reality right now and we are concerned that it is going to get worse, where the vulnerability is more acute,” said Prof. Maarten van Aalst, who was not involved with the report.

Many scientists say the world is no longer on a worst-case path for emissions. But even under a more moderate scenario, van Aalst said that many impacts are now happening faster than previously thought, “including the extremes we are already experiencing, as well as the potential impacts of migration and displacement.” also included.”

While the impact of climate change on migration is not new, it is often part of a combination of factors driving people to move, and acts as a threat multiplier. People affected by conflict and inequality are also more vulnerable to the effects of climate change because they have limited means of adaptation.

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“Globally we know that three out of four people live within the country,” said Dr. Kanta Kumari Rigaud, World Bank’s leading environmental expert and co-author of the report.

The report also warned that migration hot spots could appear within the next decade and intensify by 2050. There needs to be planning in the areas where people will move, and the areas that go to help the people who live.

Suggested actions were to “achieve net zero emissions by mid-century with a chance to limit global warming to 1.5 °C” and invest in development that is “green, resilient and inclusive, in line with the Paris Agreement.”

Clement and Rigaud warn that the worst-case scenario is still plausible if collective action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and invest in development is not taken soon, especially over the next decade.