COVID-19 modelling shows fourth wave could be on the wane as vaccines, restrictions working

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Canada’s chief public health officer has poured a dose of optimism into the country’s fight against the fourth wave of COVID-19.

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Dr Theresa Tam said efforts to slow the spread are working where the virus is growing.

He said hard lessons must be learned about the risks of removing public health measures too early, especially in areas where not enough people have been vaccinated.


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“The curve is just bending,” Tam told a briefing on Friday. He also emphasized on how basic measures like masking should be done to avoid another surge in winters.

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Tam said it is promising that more than 80 percent of Canadians eligible to receive the shot are now fully vaccinated against COVID-19, however, there are still some six million eligible Canadians who are not properly immunized.

She cautioned that people should follow public health measures over the Thanksgiving weekend.

Specifically, she advised people to restrict indoor Thanksgiving celebrations to those who have been fully vaccinated and that hosts should try to open windows to improve ventilation.

Tam said family members or friends who have added health concerns may still want to wear masks.

For those who have not been fully vaccinated, TAM recommends that gatherings be kept for household members only and ideally kept outside.

He and Dr. Howard Njoo, deputy chief public health officer, both acknowledged that their vaccination status from guests could prove difficult.

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The health agency today released its latest modeling for the pandemic, showing that an average of 3,700 new cases were reported daily across the country this week, far lower than initially estimated.

Tam says nationally, it is also the first time since July that the pandemic does not appear to be in a growth pattern.

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