Covid will post threat to UK for next five years, experts warn

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Covid will threaten the UK for at least the next five years, scientific advisers have warned the government.

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A report prepared by the Scientific Epidemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational Sub-Group (SPI-M) Panel showed that “Covid-19 will take at least five years to settle into a projected endemic state” – where the virus Remains in the background but does not cause widespread infection and rapidly dominates the NHS.

The report – prepared ahead of the Omron version and released on Friday – states that “there is a high probability that proactive management of SARS-CoV-2 will need to be continued over the long term.” How many vaccinations and boosters, and what other interventions (testing, ventilation, isolating cases, etc.) will be needed in five to ten years, are as yet unknown.”


How long will it take for the coronavirus to settle into a more predictable endemic state, the Spi-M report says, adding that government policy and the rate at which immunity declines will play a big role in the time frame.

“Assuming no intervention other than vaccination, endemism will be reached rapidly if immunity to SARS-CoV-2 subsides quickly, but it will also lead to a once-high prevalence level and thus reach health and care services.” more burden,” says the report.

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It further added: “Future COVID-19 control may require repeated vaccination to maintain adequate vaccine-derived immunity. It is a real possibility that, in the next five years, there will be epidemics of sufficient size to affect health and care services. ,

The UK’s Health and Safety Agency said the warning comes after 75 cases of the new Omicron variant were identified in England, which have now emerged with warnings of community outbreaks.

The government also released the minutes of an emergency meeting of respiratory pathologists last Thursday (November 25) discussing the Omron edition. Advisors to Sage cautioned that a “very strict response” may be needed from Downing Street, while scientists from the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag) said a spike in cases could overwhelm the NHS.

Nervatag, a subset of Sage, also said at the meeting that it could not rule out that the potential transition wave caused by Omicron would be of a similar magnitude, or even larger, than the previous waves. Will be

In the event of such an outcome, this increase in infections “would be accompanied by a wave of severe cases, and the subgroup cannot rule out that this could be enough to overwhelm NHS capacity,” Nervatag said. .

Experts likewise called for “early and strong action” to limit the spread of the variant in the UK. He did not specify the measures, but reiterated the need to accelerate Britain’s vaccine programme. The PM said on Tuesday that the government is aiming to provide boosters to all adults by the end of January.


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