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A pollster that generally leans toward Democrats shows the Republican Party leading the way in its latest generic congressional ballot poll, a potentially concerning sign for Democrats as next year’s midterm approaches.

“While the numbers are not very high, they indicate a potentially ominous trend for Democrats as a plurality of voters recommend ousting the party that controls the House,” Tim Malloy said, an analyst at Quinnipiac University polling, the pollster behind the latest numbers.


The poll asked Americans which party would they prefer to control the House of Representatives if elections were held today. Among registered voters, 47% said they would like Republicans, while 44% said they would like to see Democrats in control.

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Because of Quinnipiac’s tendency to be slightly biased toward his own party, the numbers could be more trouble for Democrats than they appear on the surface. According to opinion poll analysis Made by the data journalism publication FiveThirtyEight, Quinnipiac receives an “A-” grade for accuracy, but has a typical bias of about 0.5 points in favor of Democrats.

The survey, which was conducted between October 1 and October 4, represents the first Republicans have taken the lead in the election since Quinnipiac began asking questions in May.

Quinnipiac’s first general congressional ballot of the 2022 cycle, which was held between May 18 and May 24, showed Democrats a nine-point lead over Republicans. The last time pollsters issued a general congressional ballot, a poll conducted between September 10 and September 13 gave Democrats a four-point lead over Republicans.

numbers come because President Biden has has been facing several crises lately, which deals with worrying COVID-19 numbers, the number of jobs and the chaotic return from Afghanistan.

Those woes also dented Biden’s popularity with the voting public and eroded approval ratings. According to real clear politics polling average, Biden enjoyed a positive approval rating as recently as August 19. Those numbers have reversed, with the average now showing that more voters disapprove of their work performance by Monday.