OTTAWA – It may take a year or more for them to become clear, but Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will eventually realize he is finished.
The freeze-framed results of last night’s pandemic election are too much of a stain on his mediocre record to allow him to fight the next one.
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Political leaders only get a fourth campaign shot when they are tracking an undisputed party asset toward a potentially big victory.
If the election proved to be anything in the midst of all this futility, it is that Trudeau is a personal liability to his party, which will bring rising tensions in a fragmented parliament, where three times the rancor is the same old, same old faces. The middle will flourish again.
Complicating his capacity for constructive governance is how his campaign stifled national unity with attacks on the premier, fear and hatred of those who did not rebel against vaccinations or lockdowns, and his failure to adopt progressive policies. Used to fuel protests against those who hesitated.
So an icy walk toward retirement in late 2022 or early 2023 is in trend, even if he wanted to win a majority of his career before pocketing millions of consulting or speaking dollars in the private sector.
And if he doesn’t voluntarily run, leaders like Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland and former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney will undoubtedly push him down from the plank.
Now, while the streams of lament over the monetary waste of Trudeau’s vanity vote will quickly become exhausting, we should note that, on the $300 million-per-gain Liberal seat, it’s an eye-popping waste of resources even from this government’s toss. IS- the standards around money.
Anyone better than me would crunch the numbers in math to figure out how many boil water advice can be raised for vaccines planted or carbon-absorbing trees planted for the electoral price of purchasing each additional seat in the Liberal lineup.
but I digress.
This election was mostly about leadership – and the results of the leader referendum are more interesting than the static seat count.
As I anticipated, Justin Trudeau would be gone, even though his “win” speech gave no sign of departure in this mandate. This is hardly surprising. When you have just been elected prime minister, only a fool will open the emergency exit.
But his evil eye will remain in the mind of the public and he will be confined to his own party.
It would be difficult for the public to shake the self-styled image Trudeau had anticipated to vote for him as a fourth coronavirus wave and our Afghanistan allies waited for Canada’s rescue, which did not come.
And pulling the parliamentary pin just a month before a rookie wave of Liberal lawmakers elected in 2015 qualify for their pot-of-gold pensions for life will not boost loyalty levels in the caucus.
Furthermore, the Liberals certainly know that they were, above all else, just lucky and that Justin Trudeau had nothing to do with him securing the seat.
The Conservatives lost more than a few rides to a split vote with the People’s Party. The Liberals also recorded some victories in their column in places where the Greens did not field candidates. And Trudeau was gifted an issue from Alberta Premier Jason Kenney, adding to the conservative consequences of being wide open to Erin O’Toole, who himself did not favor a lax response to that province’s fourth-wave emergency. did.
Speaking of O’Toole’s leadership, he now faces a struggle to continue leading a party facing an identity crisis.
O’Toole abandoned the hard-edged ideology of the Harper-era in favor of a kinder, gentler, bowing-air conservatism.
The result was the threat of a zealous People’s Party on the far right and an erosion of seats in the Alberta heartland with no compensatory payoff in the liberal homeland of Metro Toronto.
While this is a disastrous hit on his stride towards the center of the political spectrum and will undoubtedly sharpen the knife’s madness to a stab in the back, discretion should prevail and give him a second electoral chance.
Erin O’Toole, after all, there’s no disposable lightweight like Andrew Scheer.
And the unexpected choice of choosing between the most likely replacements like veteran MP Pierre Poiliver and influential rookie Leslyn Lewis would only serve a new buffet of fear-factors for liberals to dine on.
NDP leader Jagmeet Singh fell short of expectations with no seat gains, but with star candidate AV Lewis losing badly in BC, there is no major challenger to the same strength of his personality. Bet a lot on him for the next election battle.
Finally, and sadly, Green Party leader Annie Paul must resign immediately. As a leader who could only field candidates in two-thirds of the riding, he accepted that his presence would be an obligation to his own candidates and finished fourth in Toronto, winning his entire campaign. Dedicated, well, voter disapproval just doesn’t get much clearer than that.
Before signing off, a word about the hidden heroes of this election—thousands of voters who stood in hours-long lineups, in some cases to cast their ballots after voting closed and the results known.
It was an election in which the question without a compelling ballot box was called by the prime minister in his cynical pursuit of greater power. And yet they persevered, determined to part ways.
About nothing The election proved to be very pleasant for our democracy. It is stronger than our leaders.
that’s the bottom line