TORONTO – Liberals and conservatives are in a two-way race for the election campaign’s homestretch, according to new polling data from Nanos Research.

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In the latest nightly tracking data conducted for Granthshala News and the Globe and Mail and released on Wednesday, the Liberals are trending down since Friday and are now sitting at 30.5 percent support. Taking into account the polling margin of error, which places the party in a statistical tie with the Conservatives at 31.2 percent support.

The Conservatives have seen a slight increase in support in recent days as their voting numbers have increased since Sunday.


The NDP at the forefront is behind with 21.4 per cent, a bump from the night before when there was 18.9 per cent support.

In the lower group, the People’s Party of Canada leads with 6.8 percent, followed by Bloc Québécois with 6.2 percent and the Green Party with 3.7 percent.

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When it comes to who Canadians prefer for their next prime minister, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau and Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole remain tied.

According to polling figures, Trudeau got 29.4 percent and O’Toole 29.1 percent. Factoring in the margin of error, which puts both party leaders in a statistical tie.

NDP’s Jagmeet Singh is third on the preferred prime minister’s front with 20.5 percent, followed by People’s Party of Canada leader Maxime Bernier, Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchett and Green Party leader Année Paul.

Of the Canadians surveyed, 9.2 percent responded that they were unsure about who they would prefer for prime minister.

modus operandi

A national random telephone survey (land and cell-line sampling using live agents) of 1,200 Canadians is conducted by Nanos Research of 1,200 Canadians throughout the campaign over a three-day period. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters is interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample consisting of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interview is added and the oldest day is removed. The margin of error for the survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8 percentage points, which is 19 times out of 20.

The respondent sample is stratified both geographically and by gender. Data can be weighted by age according to the 2016 Canadian Census data administered by Statistics Canada. Reported percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding.