Liberals, Conservatives in dead heat as campaign enters final week: poll

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Liberals and conservatives are in a dead heat in the final week of Canada’s election, according to a new poll conducted for Granthshala News.

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Ipsos found that if elections were held tomorrow, Liberals and Conservatives would be tied on 32 percent of the vote, Conservatives down three points since the last election and Liberals stagnant.

The survey took place between September 10-13 and included 2,001 Canadians over the age of 18.


According to Ipsos, of Canadians who voted, 21 percent (unchanged) said they would vote for the NDP, while seven percent (unchanged) with the bloc Quebecois, four percent (up two points) with the Green Party and three percent (up two points). Will vote st (up one point) with ppc.

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Ipsos CEO Darrell Bricker told Granthshala News that the slight drop in support for the Conservatives may be due to a more aggressive Liberal campaign in the past week, which has highlighted what Canadians will lose if they are not elected. May and Erin O’Toole’s risk lead.

“The Liberals have really set their campaign on fire,” he said. “You’re seeing some reaction to that.”

Bricker said liberals are trying to “fill in the blanks about conservatives in a particularly negative way”.

This includes focusing on women’s access to abortion, firearms and compulsory vaccines.

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While the aggressive tone has tied liberals with conservatives, Bricker said it “has not evolved them.”

Instead, they are “fighting for their lives,” he said, which is a very different outcome than the Liberals, when they launched the election and thought it would be a quick sweep for the majority.

“It’s all collapsed,” Bricker said.

issue survey

The Ipsos poll also asked Canadians which issues topped the list and found that the COVID-19 pandemic came out on top at 30 percent, followed by affordability and cost of living at 26 percent and health care at 26 percent. .

The pandemic has risen four points since the start of the election, while health care has gone down three points and affordability has risen three points.

According to IPSOS, liberals are seen as the most credible in their handling of the pandemic, although that confidence has waned during the election – down six points to 42 per cent.

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Bricker said a combination of rising COVID-19 cases and liberals focused on other issues could be behind the drop in confidence for him to tackle the pandemic.

Meanwhile, confidence has risen for the NDP to handle some issues – from eight points for health care to 28 percent, first joining the liberals, and six points on affordability to 33 percent, making them the most trusted. deal with that issue.

According to Bricker, the NDP is by far the biggest producer in this election, especially in Ontario, which is shifting the progressive vote away from the liberals.

“What has happened is that progressive voters are now stuck between the NDP and the Liberal Party, because the party can do the best they can on the issues they care about most,” he said.

“What we have seen is a steady improvement in terms of the position of Mr. Singh and his party, and a decline in terms of the position of the Liberal Party.”

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted by Granthshala News from September 10 to 13. For this survey, a sample of n = 2,000 Canadians aged 18+ was interviewed. A sample of n = 1,501 were interviewed online through the Ipsos I-Say panel and non-panel sources, and respondents receive modest incentives for their participation. n = 500 Canadians aged 18+ were interviewed by live-interview telephone interviewers by landline and cellphone, using random-digit dialing. Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the composition of the sample reflects the adult population as per census data and to provide results intended to estimate the sample universe. The accuracy of an Ipsos poll that involves non-probability sampling is measured using a reliability interval. In this case, the survey is accurate to within ± 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 if all Canadians had been voted. The reliability interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.


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