Liberals hold 20-point lead in GTA, rest of Ontario a toss up with Conservatives, according to new poll

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Liberals have a strong hold in Canada’s most seat-rich region, with a 20-point lead in the Greater Toronto Area, according to a new poll, which struggles to isolate the far-right People’s Party with their support to the Conservatives. shows doing. of Canada.

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The five-day survey, conducted for CTV and CTV, provides a regional division in support of each of the main parties and reflects the mood of voters following the leaders’ debate. Released Wednesday, it shows that if elections are held today, the most likely outcome will be a Liberal minority government, said pollster Nick Nanos, founder of Nanos Research. The second most likely outcome would be a conservative minority, he said.

With four days left in the federal campaign, the survey also highlights where the two major parties are vulnerable, Mr Nanos said. Liberals see risks in all three key regions critical to forming a government: Ontario, Quebec and BC, he said. The relative strength of the Conservatives in the rest of Ontario could encroach on the Liberals in the swath of suburban riding bordering GTA. At the same time, Block Québécois is enjoying a post-debating collision, and it is a three-way race in BC.


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“The Liberals have a better chance today, we need to insist today, to form another minority government,” Mr. Nanos said. He said liberals need to worry about the trend that shows conservative leader Erin O’Toole is gaining in the preferred prime minister rankings.

The Conservatives would be in a better position to form a government after the September 20 vote if it weren’t for vote divisions moving on the right side of the political spectrum, Mr Nanos said. Polls show that the People’s Party of Canada, led by unsuccessful Conservative leadership contender Maxime Bernier, has increased its support mainly in Ontario and BC during this election. Mr Bernier’s party now enjoys 8 percent support in B.C. and the Prairies and 7 percent in Ontario.

“They are an important factor in many races and should be of concern to conservatives,” Mr Nanos said.

In the GTA, the Liberals are at 47 percent, while the Conservatives are at 27 percent, the NDP at 18 percent, the People’s Party at 6 percent and the Greens at 2 percent. The GTA includes Toronto and the regional municipalities of Durham, Halton, Peel and York.

The survey was conducted from September 10 to 14 and samples of 261 people were taken. The land-line and cellphone survey was conducted using live agents and included a 6.1 . is the margin of error of Percentage marks, 19 times out of 20.

In the rest of Ontario, liberal lead evaporates. The Liberals are at 33 percent, the Conservatives 32, the NDP 22, the People’s Party 8 and the Greens 4. With a sample size of 327 respondents, the margin of error is 5.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

For the entire province, liberals lead in Ontario with 40 percent to 30 percent for conservatives. The NDP is at 20 percent, the People’s Party at 7 and the Greens at 3. With a sample size of 588, the margin of error is 4.1 percent, 19 times out of 20.

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In Quebec, liberals hold a 32 percent lead compared to the bloc’s 28 percent. The Conservatives are at 18 percent, the NDP 15, the People’s Party 4 and the Greens 3. With a sample size of 447 respondents, the margin of error is 4.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Mr Nanos noted that Liberal support is concentrated in Montreal, giving the bloc a slight edge over the rest of the province.

In British Columbia, the lead given to the Conservatives at the start of the campaign has shrunk due to the People’s Party. According to the survey, the Conservatives sit at 30 per cent, the Liberals 28, the NDP 26 and the Greens and People’s Party at 8 per cent each. With a sample size of 300 respondents, the margin of error is 5.7 percentage points, which is 19 times out of 20.

For all regions in the survey, respondents were asked: If there was a federal election today, could you please rank your top two local voting priorities? Percentages are made up of the first-rank response of each of the respondents. A methodology report can be found here.

While national numbers show horse racing, they can obscure regional divisions in support that are crucial to deciding which party forms the government. Liberals have more efficient voter support – meaning their support is more evenly spread across key areas, allowing them to win more seats. The Conservatives enjoy a great deal of support in the Prairie provinces, which can skew the national numbers for the party without necessarily awarding more seats. That trend came to the fore in the 2019 election, in which the Conservatives won the popular vote but took only 121 seats against the Liberals’ 157.

In 2015, the Liberals won their majority government with 40 percent of the vote versus the Conservatives’ 32 percent of the vote. The NDP achieved third party status with 20 percent of the vote. In 2019, Mr Trudeau’s party won the most seats but fell short of the Conservatives’ majority government with 34 per cent of the vote. Bloc Québécois jumps NDP to third place in seat rankings The New Democrats got only 16 percent of the vote.

This year, the Liberals went five points ahead of the Conservatives in the Nanos Research poll released on August 12, but their lead was seen to be fading soon after the election was called on August 15. The two front-runners have since jumped between 30 and 36 percentage points.

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Wednesday’s poll showed the Liberals at 32 percent nationally, the Conservatives at 31 percent, the NDP at 20 percent, the People’s Party at 7 and the Greens at 4. The total number of respondents across Canada was 2,113 people, meaning the poll has a margin of error of 2.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Unlike most others released so far in this campaign, the survey provides a regional breakdown showing how parties are performing in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, Ontario, the Prairies and British Columbia. The breakdown is important for understanding each party’s possible paths to victory.

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