The 2021 federal election is likely to be decided by voting and strategic voting, with Lager’s executive vice president Christian Bourke saying his firm’s latest election results show the major two parties in a dead heat.
The poll shows that both Liberals and Conservatives enjoy the support of 32 percent of certain voters. The NDP is at the third position with 20 per cent.
But about one-fifth of those surveyed in an online poll conducted in collaboration with The Canadian Press said that if the race between the two front-runners was tight, it could possibly convince them to switch their vote to liberals. . About one in 10 said they could go to the Conservatives.
About one in three voters said they plan to vote for the NDP, also stating that a close race could convince them to vote for the Liberals, and a similar number of people from the People’s Party of Canada. planning to vote for, he said he might switch to the Conservatives.
Bourke said the race is so tight in part because no party or leader is generating the energy or enthusiasm.
“There’s a little bit of blah feeling, a little bit, right now,” he said.
The Conservatives had some momentum in the middle of the campaign, and a similar poll two weeks earlier showed them at 34 percent, the Liberals at 30 percent and the NDP at 24 percent.
There cannot be room for error in elections as internet based voting is not considered to be random sampling.
The latest poll was conducted between September 10 and September 13, after four days of debates by two nationally televised leaders, where the biggest punch came not from either leader but from a moderator questioning what they called Quebec’s “discriminatory”. ” Said. Secularism Act.
In Quebec, liberals remain stable with 34 percent of voters voted by Leger, compared with 30 percent for Bloc Québecois, 19 percent for Conservatives and 10 percent for the NDP.
Bourque said that after the debate, the Bloc Québécois gained some traction, but the Conservatives, which won 10 seats in Quebec two years ago, are falling down where they want to increase their seat count.
“If the Tories are below 20 percent in Quebec, they mathematically cannot gain new seats,” Bourque said.
In Ontario, where the significant 905 area that includes Toronto’s populous suburbs will help determine the final result, the Liberals hold a very modest edge over the Conservatives at 36 and 34 percent, respectively. In British Columbia, conservatives enjoy a slight edge over liberals, with the NDP only a few points ahead.
Bourke said voting numbers for the NDP in B.C. would allow him to keep his seat there, but in Ontario, where he ranks 22 percent in the lager poll, things could get tricky.
“At 22, the chances of not making a profit in Ontario and probably losing something are very close,” Bourke said. “So I think that’s what they need to see right now.”
The poll shows the Conservatives have picked up pace in the campaign’s early weeks, and the Liberals are starting a slow comeback.
According to Leger, the biggest pressure on liberals is Justin Trudeau himself. One-third of those who voted said their leadership was hesitant to vote for a Liberal, while a similar number said their morals were giving them pause.
For Erin O’Toole, more than one in five voters cited social issues such as abortion as the main reason they are hesitant to vote for the Conservatives, nearly as many have aligned their policies on climate change and vaccines. designated as the deciding factor.
Gun control was named by one in six people hesitant to vote for the Conservative, but in a world where strategic voting matters, O’Toole’s emerging position on gun control is likely to lure voters back from the People’s Party. can make it difficult. of Canada. More than half of PPC voters said gun control policy made them hesitant about Conservative voting.
Bourque said that in addition to strategic voting, turnout could be a factor. He said that often less turnout is in favor of the ruling party, because when voters really want change, turnout increases.
Two-thirds of voters either plan or have already voted by mail or in an advanced ballot.