The GOP needs a net gain of just five seats to regain the House majority it lost in the 2018 midterm
Amid an increasing number of House Democrats not running for re-election in the midterm next year as their party tries to hold on to its fragile majority in the chamber, House GOP leader Rep. There will be a lot.
Long-serving Democratic Rep. David Price of North Carolina and Mike Doyle of Pennsylvania announced on Monday that they would not run for re-election in 2022. His news came just days after fellow Democrat and House Budget Committee chairman John Yarmuth of Kentucky also said he would retire from Congress after the end of his current term.
Two more houses announced 2022 retirement
That brings the number of House Democrats who would retire rather than run for re-election in 2022 to seven, with another five seeking statewide or other offices instead of bidding for another two years in the House. And we haven’t hit the traditional peak season for Congressional retirement yet.
The GOP needs a net gain of just five seats in the 435-member House next year to regain a House majority it lost to Democrats in the 2018 midterm. Republican history is on their side – the party that wins the White House in the presidential election loses more than 25 House seats in the upcoming midterm election. And the once-a-decade congressional redeployment process — which is ongoing — is expected to favor the GOP, as Republicans control more state legislatures and governors’ offices.
With the holiday season fast approaching Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Years – when federal lawmakers on the fence about to retire take stock of their lives and discuss their future as they gather with friends and family McCarthy forecasts more House Democrats will announce their retirement in the coming period. month.
“Once you go past Thanksgiving and the members go home, and they’re Democrats and they’ve been challenged before and they’re going to get beaten up, Congress isn’t that great,” says California’s longtime leader. GOP lawmaker told Granthshala News. .
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Referring to the redeployment process, McCarthy argued during an interview in August that “they have new lines where they have to meet new people and they’re still going to the White House. They’re going to make the decision to retire.” Now, it’s the best time so they can get another job. When we make that retirement number high in the double-digit figures, the whole thing becomes a different drama.”
Doyle, Price and Yarmuth all represent secure Democratic seats, which are not yet expected to be competitive in the midterms of next year.
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A veteran Democratic adviser cautioned against reading too much into a trio of retirement announcements over the past week.
Jesse Ferguson, who served in top positions on the Democratic congressional campaign committee in the 2012 and 2014 cycles, said, “Not all retirements mean the same thing. These Democrats retiring from secure seats don’t affect their way to a majority.” We do.” Granthshala News.
But four out of seven House Democratic retirees come from very competitive districts. They are representatives. Ann Kirkpatrick of Arizona, Cheri Bustos of Illinois, Philemon Vela of Texas and Ron Kind of Wisconsin. And Representative Conor Lamb of Pennsylvania — who is running for Senate — and Representative Charlie Crist of Florida — who is running for governor — won little elections last year. While all of these seats can be changed during redistribution, they are being heavily targeted by House Republicans because they aim to regain a majority in the chamber.
McCarthy pointed to Kind’s August retirement announcement as a pivotal moment.
“When you sit back and you look and you want to tell when Belvedere was there, that’s when you really felt like you knew the majority was in the game and you had the ability to win — When Ron Kind said he was retiring,” McCarthy insisted.
Nine House Republicans are not seeking another term, with six running for office statewide. But only one of them – Rep. Lee Zeldin of New York – won his 2020 election by less than 10 points.
House retirement is often seen as an early barometer of things to come in the medium term. The last time the House flipped amid a blue wave in the mid-2018, 23 GOPs had retired, compared to only 10 among House Democrats. Competitive seats become even more vulnerable without a well-known incumbent with a healthy war chest running for re-election.
“Only members know why they decide to retire. But if there is an imbalance of retirement towards one party or the other, it can sometimes tell us something about what the party with many retirees thinks.” That’s what could happen in the medium term,” Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of Crystal Ball, the non-partisan political barrier Sabato, told Granthshala News.