There has never been a better time to be the underdog in the NFL. With this wave of elite quarterbacks joining forces with a surge of creative coaches on both sides of the ball, parity is at an all-time high.
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Just take a look at Week 1, when the underdog went 7-2 on a spread of at least five points – the most such wins since betting statistics became available in 1989. That included four outright victories, which also tied for the most the NFL’s first weekend in at least three decades.
Clearly, there is value to betting Moneyline on these low priced ‘dogs’. So which one is worth supporting before week 2? Here are three of our favorite plus-money plays at BetMGM:
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Week 2 NFL Underdog Picks and Predictions
Dolphins +155 @ Ravens
I’ve been high on the Dolphins all offseason after the addition of offensive stars around rising QB Tua Tagovailoa, which is finally starting to look like a realized version of that elite prospect that so many draftniks are insisting on coming out of Alabama.
He’s surrounded by the best supporting cast since those days in college, and coach Mike McDaniel is already garnering praise for his creative use of Miami’s elite skill-status talent after last week’s major win over New England. Is. It is not sad that the Dolphins’ defense thrives on aggressive blitz plans in the face of one of the most talented secondarys in football.
The Ravens have Super Bowl potential this year, but they’re clearly still rocking the cobwebs after taking a 104-yard lead in last week’s win over the Jets. A year ago only 13 teams pulled it off, and those teams went 3-10 ATS/5-8 straight up the following week. Miami had Baltimore’s number a year ago and also has a live ‘dog’ in this year’s rematch.
Commander +110 in Lions
Are we sure the Lions are the better team here? Sure enough, Detroit entered the season as a fast darling due to an easy schedule and expected improvement in Dan Campbell’s second year as head coach. We haven’t seen the results at all, though, after a home loss to the Eagles, which wasn’t quite as close to the final score as would suggest.
The Lions’ battered O-line was placed against Philly but was not defended, allowing a total of 455 yards and forcing just three punts with zero takeaways. It wouldn’t be against the Commanders, who eventually looked like a full team with Carson Wentz. Yes, his two late interceptions were troublesome, but he wiped them out with a 90-yard game-winning drive to end his four-touchdown day.
If Wentz is closer to where he was before his days in Indianapolis, this Washington team is dangerous as a street dog. The Lions haven’t been in favor of winning a game since Matthew Stafford left town, and I can’t hold my breath over Jared Goff and co. As a house chalk.
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Saint +130 vs Buccaneers
It’s definitely one of the trendiest underdog plays of the week, and I’m not even sure it’s worth much considering the lack of talent on paper. But for the upcoming Buccaneers – historically and this week – there is no information on how difficult this matchup is.
Since Tom Brady joined the team in 2020, Tampa Bay is 0-4 in the regular season against the Saints, with all four losses coming by at least nine points. Keys has long been under pressure from coordinator and current head coach Dennis Allen, whose defense has sacked Brady at least three times in all four of those victories.
The Bucks’ offensive line was already a concern even before the injury to start Donovan Smith (elbow) last week, who is doubtful for play on Sunday. Tampa Bay’s offense can really struggle at this spot, and Jameis Winston has enough weapons to secure another home win against his former team.