November hiring spike seen raising odds of Bank of Canada rate increase in first half of next year

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Canada’s job growth accelerated in November after the end of some COVID-19 financial aid, a result that is pushing expectations of the Bank of Canada’s rate hike.

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Statistics Canada said Friday that the economy created 154,000 positions last month, after gaining 31,200 jobs in October. Bay Street analysts were expecting a gain of 38,000 positions in November. The unemployment rate dropped from 6.7 percent to 6 percent, just 0.3 percentage points lower than the level of the COVID-19 outbreak last year.

It was the sixth consecutive month of job growth since the summer reopening. With the November profit, there were about 186,000 more people working in Canada than in February 2020.

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Job vacancies rise by over a million in tight labor market

Where did all the self-employed workers go?

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Friday’s report includes several milestones. The total number of hours worked in the economy returned to pandemic levels for the first time. Also, Statscan noted that 80.7 percent of women aged 25 to 54 were employed, a record high.

“Employment growth in November and further strong gains in average earnings means the Bank of Canada will hike interest rates in the first half of next year rather than wait until July,” said Stephen Brown, Canada’s senior economist. In Capital Economics, wrote a note to clients.

Recruitment in November was primarily driven by the private sector, with profits largely split between full-time and part-time positions. Most of the gains were in service-producing industries.

While recruitment continues, many Canadian employers are finding it difficult to fill positions. As of September, there were nearly one million job vacancies nationwide, with high labor demand, particularly in hospitality, retail and health care.

The bulk of COVID-19 financial aid for businesses and families ended in late October, including the Canada Recovery Benefit, which provides jobless benefits to people who did not qualify for employment insurance. Maybe this has forced people to accept job offers. (The federal government has brought in targeted aid for the coming winter months.)

In November, nearly 44,000 positions were added in health care, making it the top industry for job growth. There was little change in employment in housing and food services, adding to its troubles. During the COVID-19 crisis, the industry has lost nearly 200,000 workers.

Statscan acknowledged the tightness in the labor market, comparing it to current conditions in the summer of 2019, when the unemployment rate was at a record low and wages were up.

“These conditions are likely to contribute to new or worsening imbalances in provincial, regional and local labor markets, including a lack of specific skills, or geographic mismatches between vacancies and the workers available to fill them,” the agency said. the agency said.

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