Premier League odds, picks: Nottingham Forest vs. Newcastle

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Nottingham Forest will play in the top division of English football for the first time since 1999. The Tricky Trees earned their promotion the hard way, starting last season 1-1-6 (win-draw-loss) for a magical run under new manager Steve Cooper before qualifying for the play-offs. Thank you.

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As is often the case with newly introduced sides, Cooper and Forrest had a busy season to replace players whose loan deals had expired, in addition to cementing the team for the Premier League.

Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle odds, pick

Even with some clever additions in the summer like Jesse Lingard, Taivo Avonii, Neko Williams and Orel Mangla, bookies are not keen on One’s chances of staying in the top flight. Tricky Trees is to be relegated to +110, which links them with fellow newcomer Fulham for the second shortest odds behind Bournemouth, who are the favorites at -210.


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Admitting the destination is low enough for a team like Forrest and risk making this claim, there are reasons to believe that the former European Champions could surprise everyone thanks to their manager (not unlike last season’s Brentford) .

While there is reason to believe that Forest may be underrepresented by the market, Newcastle is on the opposite end of the spectrum. Thanks to a mega-investment in the club from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the magpies are now overflowing with cash and have spent it wisely to date. Bruno Guimaraes, Kieran Trippier, Dan Byrne and Nick Pope gave Eddie Howe a solid base to build on, but it feels like bookmakers with Newcastle are getting caught up in the hype.

Bruno Guimaraes.
Bruno Guimaraes at Newcastle’s training ground.
Newcastle United via Getty Images

Sure, the Magpies improved a lot when the new owners came in and hired Howe, but that’s not saying much about how poor they were before the acquisition. Newcastle went 11-1-5 (WDL) with a +4 goal difference after the January transfer closed, but its underlying metrics were not so impressive as it posted an expected -0.7 goal difference in that period.

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And it’s also fair to doubt how solid Newcastle’s defense will be under Howe. James Park last winter, the goal was clear: to survive. When this happens, coaches—even those with a more free-flowing philosophy like Howe’s—are always more pragmatic and more defensively set up.

With the threat of relegation gone the way, Howe is likely to apply a more spirited style to Newcastle and this could open them up to counter-attacking against a counter-attacking team like Nottingham Forest.

There is no doubt that Newcastle is a much stronger side than Nottingham Forest, but the pricing is out of control here. The Tricky Trees are a living underdog on Saturday.

Nottingham Forest vs Newcastle Pick

Nottingham Forest +475 — FanDuel

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