Payrolls likely to rise by 500,000 in August, say economists
September Jobs The report is projected to show that hiring accelerated last month as COVID-19 cases decreased nationwide and federal unemployment benefits for millions of Americans ended.
Payrolls increased by 500,000 last month, according to an average estimate from Refinitiv economists, while the unemployment rate is expected to drop to 5.1%. This would be a sharp increase from August, when the economy took a disappointing turn. 235,000 jobs – Far below the consensus forecast of 728,000.
Employment was likely to be boosted by the reopening of schools and the end of $300-a-week unemployment benefits that critics say kept Americans out of work at home. The declining number of cases of the highly contagious delta variant helped, too. In contrast, Hurricane Ida – one of the strongest landfalls ever made in the US – may have hampered job growth last month.
Fed’s inflation forecast rises to highest in 30 years
“The reports are most likely related to Hurricane Ida-related hiring and the reopening of schools and daycare centers, as well as seasonal adjustments within the education sector that could lower the top-line estimate,” said Joe Brusuelas, RSM Chief Economist.
The latest labor market data comes as the Federal Reserve begins planning how and when to exit ultra-easy monetary policies to keep the economy afloat during the pandemic.
The projected profit of $500,000 will likely keep the Fed on track to begin opening up its aggressive bond-buying program; Experts say even a single lapse is unlikely to give the Fed enough fodder to reverse course.
“Unless there are unexpectedly low job numbers, we would like to see the September report move the needle on the Fed’s intention to announce its tapering operations at its November meeting and begin rolling back its asset purchases in December. Let’s not see it happening,” said Brusuelas.
Click here to read more from Granthshala Business
Central bank officials – who have said slowing to $120 billion in monthly bond purchases would be their first step toward a more normal policy setting – indicated in September that it could start “soon”.
if Economy While progress toward the US central bank’s targets on inflation and employment continues, the Federal Open Market Committee said in its September meeting statement, “The committee decides that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be necessary. ”