Study has been investigated in California, and the news is not good

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    A form first discovered in California in December is more contagious than earlier forms of coronovirus, two new studies have shown that fuel concerns such a sharp decline in all cases in the emerging mutant state and perhaps a hindrance elsewhere Can put.

    In one of the new studies, researchers found that a rapid version has spread to a neighborhood in San Francisco over the past few months. Other reports confirmed that the variant has increased across the state, and it has been discovered that it produces other viral particles inside a person’s body as other versions do. That study also indicated that the vaccine may be better than others in developing the immune system – and vaccines.

    “I wish you had better news to give me – that this version is not important,” said Dr., a virologist at the University of California, San Francisco. Charles Chiu said. “But unfortunately, we just follow science.”

    Neither study has yet been published in a scientific journal. And experts don’t know how much of a threat to public health it is compared to others spreading to California.

    A version called B.1.1.7 arrived in the United States from Britain, where it quickly became the dominant form of the virus and overload hospitals there. Studies in the British medical records show that B.1.1.7 is not only more variable, but more deadly than earlier variants.

    Some experts stated that the new version was mentioned in California, but was unlikely to create as much of a burden as B.1.1.7.

    William Hainz, an epidemiologist at the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, said, “I am convinced that it is more locally transmitted than others, which was not involved in the research.” “But there is no evidence to suggest that it is in the same ballpark as B.1.1.7.”

    Dr. Cheeu first crosses over the new form by accident. In December, he and other researchers in California were concerned about the discovery of B.1.1.7 in Britain. He started looking at his samples from positive coronavirus tests in California, sequencing the viral genome to see if B.1.1.7 had arrived in his state.

    The image
    Credit …James Tensuan for the New York Times

    On New Year’s Eve, Drs. Chiu was shocked to find a previously unknown version that made up one-quarter of the samples he and his colleagues had collected. “I thought he was crazy,” he said.

    It turns out that researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center in Los Angeles discovered the same type of surgeon at a higher level in Southern California. Dr. Chiu announced his initial discovery, and the Cedar-Sinai team went public two days later.

    Since then, researchers have been looking more closely at the new version, known as B.1.427 / B.1.429, to pinpoint its origin and track its spread. It has so far appeared in 45 states, and in many other countries including Australia, Denmark, Mexico and Taiwan. But it is still closed only in California.

    It was not clear in advance whether the version was inherently more permeable than the others, or whether it had increased in California as the gatherings became superseding events.

    “Just by random chance, a bad marriage or choir practice can create a large frequency difference,” said Joe Dercie, co-chairman of Chan Zuckerberg Biohub, which is investigating the spread of variants.

    Coronavirus virus and mutation

    Keeping track of recent mutations, variants and linias.

    In a new study that will soon be posted online, Drs. Chiu and his colleagues analyzed 2,172 virus samples collected from across the state between September and January. In early September, researchers found no signs of B.1.427 / B.1.429. But by the end of January, it had become the flagship version in California. Dr. Chiu and his colleagues estimate that cases caused by the variant are now doubling every 18 days.

    Reviewing medical records on 308 cases of COVID-19 in San Francisco, Drs. Chiu and his colleagues found that older people died from the new variants more than others. But this result can be a statistical shock: only 12 deaths occurred in the group, so the difference in deaths from one subgroup to another may not be in a larger sample.

    Researchers also conducted experiments in the laboratory to search for evidence that the new version had a biological edge. In one study, they showed that it was at least 40 percent more effective at infecting human cells that had previously been variance. And when they measured the genetic material found on the swab used for coronovirus tests, the researchers found that those infected with the variant produce twice as much viral load than other variants.

    The image

    Credit …Apu Gomes / Agence France-Press – Getty Images

    The study has also found that the new variant can make the immune system better than other variants. Antibodies to people recovering from infections from other variants were less effective in blocking the new variant in the laboratory. This was true when researchers used blood serum Those who were vaccinated.

    Nevertheless, the effect of the variant on immunity is much less because of a South African variant called B.1.351. Dr. Chiu said that it is unclear whether the vaccines in use would be less effective than B.1.427 / B.1.429.

    “If we can get enough people vaccinated, we will be able to deal with these variants, because we won’t have a continuous transmission,” he said.

    In a separate study that has not yet been published, Drs. De RCI and his colleagues pondered over how the version spread in San Francisco, a predominantly Latino neighborhood mission district.

    Looking at the samples from late November, the researchers found that 16 percent of the coronaviruses belonged to B.1.427 / B.1.429. By January, after 630 genome sequencing, they found it to be 53 percent.

    Researchers also studied the spread of this variant and others in 326 households. They found that if someone had a B.1.427 / B.1.429 in their home, people had a 35 percent chance of getting infected. If the person was infected with another type, the rate was only 26 percent.

    “What we see is a minor, but meaningful, difference” Dr. Darisi said.

    Dr. Cheu said the San Francisco study offered a microcosm of how it spread throughout the state. “The data they have from the Mission District really supports our data, and vice versa,” he said.

    The image

    Credit …Jim Wilson / The New York Times

    But Harvard’s Dr. Haines is not sure that the variants are at great risk. Every time B.1.1.7 has shown up in a new country, it has exploded quickly. In contrast, the variant discovered in California has gradually gained dominance.

    Dr. Cheu and his co-workers were able to infer when B.1.427 / B.1.429 originated by comparing mutations arising in the virus after their separation from their common ancestor. This analysis points towards late spring. If true, this means that this variant is at a low of maybe four months or more in California.

    “It’s not as big a deal as the others,” Dr. Hange said. He There is speculation that if scientists sequence more coronavirus genomes at other locations, they will find more of these fast-spreading mutants. “The variants may be everywhere, and we are seeing them only in places where sequencing occurs,” he said.

    We can soon get some new insights on how to take these emerging variants seriously. B.1.1.7 arrived in California around the beginning of December, and although it is doubling every 12 days, it is still about 2 percent of coronavirus in the state.

    Now California is going to be a kind of viral cage match between the two types. “I doubt B.1.1.7 will win,” Dr. Hanage said.

    Although Dr. Chiu feels that it is possible that B.1.427 / B.1.429 suppresses the newcomer and dominates the kingdom.

    “We’ll find out in the next few weeks,” he said.

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