These Canadian housing markets are getting hit hardest

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Daily roundup of research and analysis from market strategist Scott Barlow

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Robert Kawick, senior economist at BMO, breaks down that the domestic housing market is being hit hardest by the price correction,

“Home prices are correcting across the country, but speed and depth vary. Taken from February’s peak in national benchmark price, the attached chart shows how a select few markets fared. This is abundantly clear. That’s where the worst places are – the suburbs and outskirts of Toronto, where prices are officially about 20% lower in some areas. These markets were also the first to break out (the speculative psychology in these areas was arguably the worst). Atlantic Canada is in much better shape. Keep in mind that a market like Calgary was already struggling for several years before COVID, so prices there never really went up. BC is struggling, but not as dire as Ontario. Montreal And Ottawa is improving moderately and systematically.”

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Oakville, Kitchener-Waterloo, London, Hamilton and Barry housing markets are being hit the hardest.

“BMO: Regional Housing Market Damage” – (Research Excerpt, Table) Twitter

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Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Securities, remains extremely bearish in his distinctive, bullet point style,

“US CPI unlikely to fall below 4-5% anytime soon… Fed funds and US yields rising to 4-5% over next 4-5 months… US unemployment rate 4-5% next 4 -5 quarters rising; maximum recession in the world but let’s say new highs in yield = new fall in stocks… Inflation shock is not over, financial conditions are dire… 20th in last 140 years S&P 500 in bear market; 37.3% drop from average peak to trough, average duration 289 days; history is no guide for the future, but history says bear market will hit the S&P on October 19, 2022 (35th anniversary Black Monday) Ends at 3020 with P500 (note Nasdaq is already down -29%); EPS bearish shock (see FedEx) catalyst for new lows; we say SPX is munching on 3600, cutting at 3300 , have to gorge on 3000.”

The S&P 500 pre-market is at 3901, up 23.1 per cent from the 3000 level.

“Bofa’s Hartnett… Still Bearish” – (Research Excerpt) Twitter

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Morgan Stanley strategist Victoria Irving and research associate Amelia Danjoux met with three different companies to come up with different solutions for carbon capture,

“A wide range of solutions available on the market for carbon capture. Carbon capture in a more traditional sense prevents carbon from being emitted into the atmosphere by capturing it at the point of release and transporting it to be stored in the natural geological environment We hosted Storegga, which primarily provides transportation and storage solutions. The company stores CO2 in offshore oil and gas fields. We also heard from two biotechnology companies, Deep Branch and Hexas Biomass. Deep Branch Hexas promotes a more sustainable food system by using CO2 along with hydrogen as an input in its fermentation process to make single-cell proteins for animal feed. Similarly, Hexas is developing its biofuel crop, xenograss. Via uses proprietary technology to create a sustainable fiber, which separates carbon from the atmosphere. The crop can be used to replace wood, corn and other fossil-fuel based raw materials in many applications .

None of the companies mentioned are public, but I was surprised by the variety of perspectives here.

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turn: “Stunning images of space abound in this year’s Astronomy Photographer of the Year contest” – CBC

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Source: www.theglobeandmail.com

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