UK Covid hospitalisations hit 1,000 for first time in six weeks, deaths rise by 25% and cases jump 10% but SAGE insists NHS WILL cope and admissions are ‘unlikely’ to reach January peak even WITHOUT Plan B as Boris says another lockdown ‘isn’t on cards’ 

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  • Health officials posted another 49,298 infections, as cases jumped to a tenth in a week, and 180 deaths
  • SAGE found vaccine-acquired immunity and natural protection were enough to keep hospital rates down in winter
  • Even in most pessimistic scenarios, the group estimated daily Covid admissions to be 1,500. will not rise above
  • Added that there was some evidence of a third wave peak in hospitalizations, ‘has already happened’

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UK daily Covid hospitalizations breached 1,000 today for the first time in six weeks, but SAGE scientists insist it is ‘highly unlikely’ the NHS will be overwhelmed by the virus this winter, even Even without restrictions in advice, which justifies the bold decision of number 10 to immediately resort. ‘Alternate Plan’.

Health department bosses also posted another 49,298 infections as cases jumped a tenth in a week, and deaths rose by a quarter to 180.

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But Boris Johnson echoed the optimism of his advisers during a visit to a vaccine clinic today, saying the current numbers were ‘totally’ expected.

He acknowledged that work from home and mild measures were being put ‘under constant review’, but ruled out another lockdown. “We see absolutely nothing to indicate that is on the cards,” the prime minister said.

Modeling by SAGE for England predicted that a combination of vaccine-acquired immunity and natural protection would be enough to keep hospital rates below levels during the second wave.

Even in the most depressing central scenarios, the group estimated that daily Covid hospital admissions this winter would not exceed 1,500. More optimistic models had them peaking below 1,000, but suggested they could peak next spring. The daily numbers published by the government include all four UK countries.

SAGE’s forecasts assumed a modest 1.3 million elderly and vulnerable people would be given a Covid booster vaccine per week in the coming months, in line with current rates, and that 90 percent of eligible people over 50, NHS workers and At-risk adults take the offer.

In documents submitted to ministers last week but published only today, SAGE said there is some evidence that the peak of the third wave of hospitalizations has ‘already occurred’.

But the panel of top scientists – which includes Sir Patrick Vallance and Professor Chris Whitty – warned against complacency, saying there is still a danger if people suddenly drop all precautions, with vaccines suddenly ending up in young groups. or a newer version becomes effective.

He asked the government to have contingencies so that face masks, work-from-home and vaccine passports can be introduced quickly if the pandemic suddenly turns away from ‘optimistic’ modeling. The group said the measures could make a ‘big difference’ if enacted quickly.

The findings will give the government confidence that it has made the right decision not to return to its winter ‘Plan B’ despite rising infection rates and pressure from NHS owners, parts of the media and many scientists.

Tory lawmakers feared Boris Johnson would come under pressure and trigger contingency plans to put the country back on a ‘slippery slope’ into yet another lockdown. He urged the PM not to be ‘threatened’ by health chiefs in enforcing the new rules.

Official data published today showed that Covid infections have reached their highest level since mid-January with nearly one in 50 infected with the virus last week – but cases are mostly concentrated in children.

SAGE scenarios do not see The flu burden on the NHS. Experts predict a huge increase in influenza entry this winter, as the natural immunity deficit is behind the lockdown. Modeling doesn’t even involve effort for To tackle a record-high waiting list that began with pandemic-disrupted care, which doctors have warned leaves them less room for hospitalization.

In other developments today, doctors in England were slammed for threatening industrial action if they were asked to ‘do the basics’ of their jobs, amid a growing dispute between GPs and the government.

Health Secretary Sajid Javid last week published proposals this winter to give general practice £250 million to offer more in-person appointments and same-day care. Under the plans, the NHS will publish a league table of how many face-to-face appointments in each of the 6,600 surgeries in England – effectively ‘naming and shaming’ those who do not offer enough.

But the British Medical Association’s England GP committee yesterday rejected the proposals, as well as separate rules that would see them oversee the Covid vaccination exemption process and force the highest-earning doctors to publicly declare their salaries.

Modeling by SAGE predicted that a combination of vaccine-acquired immunity and natural protection would be enough to keep hospital rates below the levels seen in the second wave.  Even in the most pessimistic scenarios, the group estimated that daily Covid hospital admissions would not exceed 1,500.  More optimistic models had them peak below 1,000 in the winter.  The charts above are based on modeling by the University of Warwick and see how quickly people go back to pre-pandemic social contacts.  This was based on a booster dose given 'sustained' immunity

Modeling by SAGE predicted that a combination of vaccine-acquired immunity and natural protection would be enough to keep hospital rates below the levels seen in the second wave. Even in the most pessimistic scenarios, the group estimated that daily Covid hospital admissions would not exceed 1,500. More optimistic models had them peak below 1,000 in the winter. The charts above are based on modeling by the University of Warwick and see how quickly people go back to pre-pandemic social contacts. This was based on a booster dose given ‘sustained’ immunity

Other SAGE modeling took into account 'frequent' decreases from booster doses, and speculated that hospital admissions could break the levels seen during the second wave in January for worst-case estimates.

Other SAGE modeling took into account ‘frequent’ decreases from booster doses, and speculated that hospital admissions could break the levels seen during the second wave in January for worst-case estimates.

Tory MPs feared Boris Johnson (on a visit to a Covid vaccination center at Little Venice Sports Center in London) would fall under pressure and trigger contingency plans to put the country back on a 'slippery slope' into yet another lockdown.  He urges PM not to be 'threatened' by health chiefs in enforcing new rules

Tory MPs feared Boris Johnson (on a visit to a Covid vaccination center at Little Venice Sports Center in London) would fall under pressure and trigger contingency plans to put the country back on a ‘slippery slope’ into yet another lockdown. He urges PM not to be ‘threatened’ by health chiefs in enforcing new rules

The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine looked at two different scenarios, with the top chart looking at social dynamics and the bottom looking at how long vaccine immunity lasts (pessimistic, yellow, middle, green and optimistic, Blue).  In all scenarios, daily hospital admissions do not exceed 1,000 this winter, but the future of the pandemic is still highly uncertain which explains the wide confidence interval

The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine looked at two different scenarios, with the top…

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