Why it’s a good bet to pick against Mets in NL East


I don’t think the Mets have as strong a hold on the NL East as most bookies do. The Mets’ chances of winning the division at most US stores are around -225, but I think the schedule and potentially Jacob DeGrom could miss an extended period is much higher.

The Mets are a completely different team without deGrom, and it will be more noticeable as we get closer to August. A comeback against the Pirates and the Reds is one thing, but the Mets’ next homestand is set to be a very rough schedule starting on August 1.

From August 2 onwards, they will likely have to run a string of opponents without deGrom, so we may see a very different picture in the NL East standings by September 1.

The Mets have three days off in August. Starting August 10, they would play 13 consecutive days, hosting the Nations and Dodgers and then visiting the Giants and Dodgers. After a day off, they face another stretch of 14 games over 13 days against the Giants, Nationals and Marlins. The Mets face the Nationals 11 times between August 10 and September 6 and play 13 games with the Giants and Dodgers in that period. It’s a tough schedule for any team, especially one that can miss its ace player.

jacob degrom
jacob degrom
bill costroun

Not only will the Nationals have a chance to build important ground on the Mets with all of their one-on-one games, but the Nations finish the season with a month of games against the Braves, Pirates, Marlins, Rockies, Reds, and more. The Red Sox, potentially with a record of over .500 with only three of their last 25 matches against opponents.

For all of these reasons, I’d bet the Nationals to win the NL East on 14/1 and make the playoffs on 11/1 when those numbers were available at DraftKings.

DeGrom looked like a locksmith to NL Cy Young and was the favorite for MVP, but the NL MVP odds have been off the board for several days, with DeGrom announcing again the injured list with a tense forearm. is in.

I make DeGrom’s MVP odds almost zero percent right now, because it’s incredibly unlikely that he’ll probably pitch more than 150 innings. With that assignment, DeGrom would overtake Cy Young with the fewest innings by a starting pitcher in modern history. Blake Snell won it with 180, and Clayton Kershaw won with 198²/₃. I can’t see why DeGrom is getting serious MVP consideration with only 150-160 innings, and it’s questionable whether that’s enough workload for him to win Cy Young.

don’t sleep on soto

One of the Precision MVP favorites had a cool first half, but is heating up towards the end. Washington’s Juan Soto was hitting .301/.420/.512 and was the first player in history to hit five home runs and 10 hits in his first four games after the All-Star break. Those numbers in Soto’s 21–22 season put him in the same company as Hall of Famers Ted Williams and Jimmy Foxx.

With a citizen-friendly schedule, Soto’s MVP campaign isn’t over. Their chances were as high as 80/1 during the All-Star break, but I would expect them to open much lower if a US speculator gets around to pricing the market. According to my internal MVP numbers, I rank Soto the third favorite at +1699. I make Fernando Tatis Jr +101 and Max Munsi +1598. I bet soto any odds above 20/1 when they are reposted, and I expect their odds to drop.

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